{~_~} Раиса
2014-04-18 03:57:22 UTC
National Post - April 17, 2014
Conservatives arrive at another crossroads
Core Conservative support, just under 30 per cent of the voting
population, has kept the party more than solvent; but it can't win it a
majority.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper's personal, moving eulogy Wednesday for
his friend and former finance minister, Jim Flaherty, marked a turning
point of sorts for the Conservative government. We've a year to go,
perhaps a bit longer, until Election 2015. The time for big cabinet
shuffles and policy course corrections is past. And Flaherty, who was a
force of compassion and moderation in a power structure not known for
either quality, is gone.
[------]
Set against the above are three main negatives, all in evidence lately,
that explain why the Conservatives have been stuck for a year in the
high twenties in popular support, just five points or so ahead of the
New Democrats, and nearly ten points behind the Trudeau Liberals.
The first is natural late-cycle ossification, which tends to cripple any
government after year eight or nine of its life. The web of
relationships and personal obligations, debts, grudges, ambitions,
promises, mistakes and aspirations that make up any political party has
a limited shelf-life, we have seen time and time again (and are seeing
now at Queen's Park in Toronto) after which the beams start to rot.
The natural self-healing process of purging and renewal grows stilted
and difficult – particularly when, as is the case in Harper's Ottawa
now, the centre has already been rocked by months of error and scandal,
and the pool of potential operatives who are both loyal and able has
grown shallow. The recent downfall of former Conservative party
executive director Dimitri Soudas is a case in point.
Second, the Wright-Duffy scandal and the related problem of what to do
about the Senate, are both still active. Though the RCMP has ruled out
filing charges against Nigel Wright, Global News 1has reported that
charges will likely be laid against Duffy within weeks. That would blow
the entire affair up again, just when it was beginning to fade, a little.
Relatedly, the Supreme Court is poised to render its opinion next week
about what is required for Senate reform and/or abolition. If, as
expected, the court rules that that any meaningful reform (including
electing Senators with term limits) requires at least approval by seven
provinces with 50 per cent of the population, or unanimity, Conservative
reform plans will be back at square one, after eight years in power.
http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2014/04/17/michael-den-tandt-conservatives-arrive-at-another-crossroads/
Third, and most important: The Conservative government, read the Prime
Minister, has ignored this glaring strategic reality: To counter a
Trudeau-led Liberal party and a Mulcair-led NDP, the Conservatives
needed to curb their anti-democratic tendencies – epitomized by omnibus
bills and constant, intransigent resistance to compromise, which looks
like the arrogance of long-held power – and make themselves credible on
the environment. Unfortunately for their more moderate supporters, they
have done neither; if anything, they've doubled down.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Core Conservative support, just under 30 per cent of the voting
population, has kept the party more than solvent; but it can't win it a
majority. That is a fundamental problem for the Harper team, and one it
has precious little time to solve.
Conservatives arrive at another crossroads
Core Conservative support, just under 30 per cent of the voting
population, has kept the party more than solvent; but it can't win it a
majority.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper's personal, moving eulogy Wednesday for
his friend and former finance minister, Jim Flaherty, marked a turning
point of sorts for the Conservative government. We've a year to go,
perhaps a bit longer, until Election 2015. The time for big cabinet
shuffles and policy course corrections is past. And Flaherty, who was a
force of compassion and moderation in a power structure not known for
either quality, is gone.
[------]
Set against the above are three main negatives, all in evidence lately,
that explain why the Conservatives have been stuck for a year in the
high twenties in popular support, just five points or so ahead of the
New Democrats, and nearly ten points behind the Trudeau Liberals.
The first is natural late-cycle ossification, which tends to cripple any
government after year eight or nine of its life. The web of
relationships and personal obligations, debts, grudges, ambitions,
promises, mistakes and aspirations that make up any political party has
a limited shelf-life, we have seen time and time again (and are seeing
now at Queen's Park in Toronto) after which the beams start to rot.
The natural self-healing process of purging and renewal grows stilted
and difficult – particularly when, as is the case in Harper's Ottawa
now, the centre has already been rocked by months of error and scandal,
and the pool of potential operatives who are both loyal and able has
grown shallow. The recent downfall of former Conservative party
executive director Dimitri Soudas is a case in point.
Second, the Wright-Duffy scandal and the related problem of what to do
about the Senate, are both still active. Though the RCMP has ruled out
filing charges against Nigel Wright, Global News 1has reported that
charges will likely be laid against Duffy within weeks. That would blow
the entire affair up again, just when it was beginning to fade, a little.
Relatedly, the Supreme Court is poised to render its opinion next week
about what is required for Senate reform and/or abolition. If, as
expected, the court rules that that any meaningful reform (including
electing Senators with term limits) requires at least approval by seven
provinces with 50 per cent of the population, or unanimity, Conservative
reform plans will be back at square one, after eight years in power.
http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2014/04/17/michael-den-tandt-conservatives-arrive-at-another-crossroads/
Third, and most important: The Conservative government, read the Prime
Minister, has ignored this glaring strategic reality: To counter a
Trudeau-led Liberal party and a Mulcair-led NDP, the Conservatives
needed to curb their anti-democratic tendencies – epitomized by omnibus
bills and constant, intransigent resistance to compromise, which looks
like the arrogance of long-held power – and make themselves credible on
the environment. Unfortunately for their more moderate supporters, they
have done neither; if anything, they've doubled down.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Core Conservative support, just under 30 per cent of the voting
population, has kept the party more than solvent; but it can't win it a
majority. That is a fundamental problem for the Harper team, and one it
has precious little time to solve.