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2014-11-20 22:12:35 UTC
Mulcair could be the first NDP prime minister, if he can convince non-progressives
Bruce Anderson
Special to The Globe and Mail - Thursday, Nov. 20 2014
Tom Mulcair is one of more talented and interesting politicians I’ve met.
Politics can come down to a battle of “head versus heart” choices. But Mr.
Mulcair doesn’t want you to choose one or the other. He’s part wonk who loves
the big policy questions. But he’s also got feelings, which, refreshingly, he
doesn’t try to conceal.
The NDP Leader is not the least bit naïve; he knows he’s got challenges. But
he’s also got the confidence needed to get up in the morning and do what it
takes to lead a party. On many days, that’s about walking off the sprains and
bruises, and not letting the other guys see you sweat.
The next 11 months may be the most important ones in the history of the New
Democratic Party. They stand across the aisle from a government that can be
beaten.
On paper the NDP have a better chance of winning than they ever have.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
They’ve got money, a seasoned and able front bench, and they aren’t handicapped
by a huge federal deficit, which so often makes their appealing promises look
like unaffordable hazards.
But for all that, optimism is guarded in NDP ranks.
In one sense, the NDP path to victory is not that complicated: voters grow
wearier of the Conservatives and warier about Justin Trudeau.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
But months are passing with scant evidence that this is happening. And time is
growing shorter. What, if anything, can the NDP do to disrupt the flow and
start to see some growth in public support again?
First, the NDP problem is not a Tom Mulcair problem. His Ottawa critics may
point out his weaknesses, but our polls show he’s quite well regarded across
the country. More than enough voters like his values, his ideas, his judgment
and his attitude. He outpolls Stephen Harper on all these characteristics.
Instead, the challenge facing New Democrats comes down to this:
When we ask which party is likely to win the next election, only 7 per cent
believe that will be the NDP. This may be the lowest number ever in terms of
voters expecting that the party serving as Official Opposition will become the
governing party (other than the Bloc Québécois in the 1990s). For every voter
that thinks the NDP will win, five think the Liberals will.
This week’s by-election in Whitby-Oshawa triggered another wave of speculation
about strategic voting and the risk it poses to the NDP. In that riding, the
NDP lost a huge share of their vote, and Liberal support spiked. This follows
similar setbacks in other by-elections.
Strategic voting is a clear and present danger for the NDP. In Quebec, the
Liberals currently poll at 31 per cent, a few points behind the NDP.
However another 19 per cent say their first choice isn’t Liberal, but they will
vote for whichever party looks most able to beat the Conservatives, and they
believe that will be the Liberal Party.
Among francophone voters, 22 per cent fall into this category. Why? They want
a more progressive government in Ottawa.
The NDP have been at pains to paint themselves as the party for true
progressives – a party that dreams the dreams of the left, and faithful to the
causes most dear to their hearts.
It’s a strategy with some merit, but risks too.
Every hour the NDP spend talking about their big child care proposal warms the
heart of progressive and a lot of centrist voters too.
But it also means another hour not spent addressing the quiet doubts that some
voters harbour about NDP economic instincts. Talking about building a truly
sustainable economy and increasing taxes but only on business doesn’t help, it
can make matters worse. Most voters on the centre don’t really fear the NDP as
much as lack confidence they would take a balanced approach.
In contrast, even if those same voters never hear what the Liberals have in
mind in terms of economic policy, they’ll imagine its not going to be radical.
In Canada, the market for radical is pretty, pretty small.
None of this, I’m sure, is lost on Tom Mulcair. Chances are he has a plan.
Step 1: bond with and build enthusiasm on the left.
Step 2: do what’s necessary to convince voters you can win, which starts with
making clear that you won’t upset what’s working in our economy.
If such a plan is going to work, Step 2 needs to start soon.
_____________________________________
Trudeau’s handling of protesters a sharp contrast with Harper
Del Mastro tried to treat courts as he did his political opponents
Bruce Anderson Are Harper’s tax cuts enough to convince voters to go
Conservative?
Bruce Anderson is the chairman of polling firm Abacus Data, a regular member
of CBC The National’s “At Issue” panel and a founding partner of i2 Ideas and
Issues Advertising. He has done polls for Liberal and Conservative politicians
in the past, but no longer does any partisan work. Other members of his family
have worked for Conservative and Liberal politicians, and a daughter currently
works for Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau. He writes a weekly digital column for
The Globe and Mail.
Bruce Anderson
Special to The Globe and Mail - Thursday, Nov. 20 2014
Tom Mulcair is one of more talented and interesting politicians I’ve met.
Politics can come down to a battle of “head versus heart” choices. But Mr.
Mulcair doesn’t want you to choose one or the other. He’s part wonk who loves
the big policy questions. But he’s also got feelings, which, refreshingly, he
doesn’t try to conceal.
The NDP Leader is not the least bit naïve; he knows he’s got challenges. But
he’s also got the confidence needed to get up in the morning and do what it
takes to lead a party. On many days, that’s about walking off the sprains and
bruises, and not letting the other guys see you sweat.
The next 11 months may be the most important ones in the history of the New
Democratic Party. They stand across the aisle from a government that can be
beaten.
On paper the NDP have a better chance of winning than they ever have.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
They’ve got money, a seasoned and able front bench, and they aren’t handicapped
by a huge federal deficit, which so often makes their appealing promises look
like unaffordable hazards.
But for all that, optimism is guarded in NDP ranks.
In one sense, the NDP path to victory is not that complicated: voters grow
wearier of the Conservatives and warier about Justin Trudeau.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
But months are passing with scant evidence that this is happening. And time is
growing shorter. What, if anything, can the NDP do to disrupt the flow and
start to see some growth in public support again?
First, the NDP problem is not a Tom Mulcair problem. His Ottawa critics may
point out his weaknesses, but our polls show he’s quite well regarded across
the country. More than enough voters like his values, his ideas, his judgment
and his attitude. He outpolls Stephen Harper on all these characteristics.
Instead, the challenge facing New Democrats comes down to this:
When we ask which party is likely to win the next election, only 7 per cent
believe that will be the NDP. This may be the lowest number ever in terms of
voters expecting that the party serving as Official Opposition will become the
governing party (other than the Bloc Québécois in the 1990s). For every voter
that thinks the NDP will win, five think the Liberals will.
This week’s by-election in Whitby-Oshawa triggered another wave of speculation
about strategic voting and the risk it poses to the NDP. In that riding, the
NDP lost a huge share of their vote, and Liberal support spiked. This follows
similar setbacks in other by-elections.
Strategic voting is a clear and present danger for the NDP. In Quebec, the
Liberals currently poll at 31 per cent, a few points behind the NDP.
However another 19 per cent say their first choice isn’t Liberal, but they will
vote for whichever party looks most able to beat the Conservatives, and they
believe that will be the Liberal Party.
Among francophone voters, 22 per cent fall into this category. Why? They want
a more progressive government in Ottawa.
The NDP have been at pains to paint themselves as the party for true
progressives – a party that dreams the dreams of the left, and faithful to the
causes most dear to their hearts.
It’s a strategy with some merit, but risks too.
Every hour the NDP spend talking about their big child care proposal warms the
heart of progressive and a lot of centrist voters too.
But it also means another hour not spent addressing the quiet doubts that some
voters harbour about NDP economic instincts. Talking about building a truly
sustainable economy and increasing taxes but only on business doesn’t help, it
can make matters worse. Most voters on the centre don’t really fear the NDP as
much as lack confidence they would take a balanced approach.
In contrast, even if those same voters never hear what the Liberals have in
mind in terms of economic policy, they’ll imagine its not going to be radical.
In Canada, the market for radical is pretty, pretty small.
None of this, I’m sure, is lost on Tom Mulcair. Chances are he has a plan.
Step 1: bond with and build enthusiasm on the left.
Step 2: do what’s necessary to convince voters you can win, which starts with
making clear that you won’t upset what’s working in our economy.
If such a plan is going to work, Step 2 needs to start soon.
_____________________________________
Trudeau’s handling of protesters a sharp contrast with Harper
Del Mastro tried to treat courts as he did his political opponents
Bruce Anderson Are Harper’s tax cuts enough to convince voters to go
Conservative?
Bruce Anderson is the chairman of polling firm Abacus Data, a regular member
of CBC The National’s “At Issue” panel and a founding partner of i2 Ideas and
Issues Advertising. He has done polls for Liberal and Conservative politicians
in the past, but no longer does any partisan work. Other members of his family
have worked for Conservative and Liberal politicians, and a daughter currently
works for Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau. He writes a weekly digital column for
The Globe and Mail.