Greg Carr
2014-05-01 18:49:07 UTC
“I’ll so offend to make offence a skill;
It seemed for the longest time that nothing could touch Justin Trudeau;
that his ascendancy was inevitable. But that may be beginning to change.
In April, for the first time since he took the Liberal crown, successive
national polls showed his support slipping. Across Canada the Grits are
now in a dead heat with Stephen Harper’s Conservatives, at 33 per cent
versus 31 per cent, respectively, according to poll aggregator
threehundredeight.com.
In Quebec, meantime, the Liberals now trail Tom Mulcair’s New Democrats
by one point, at 32 per cent versus 33, according to a new CROP survey.
It’s not a collapse, to be sure; but across the board, suddenly,
Trudeau’s numbers are moving in the wrong direction, if you’re a
Liberal. And the question, of course, is why. What has changed?
For months, running into years, the knock against Trudeau has been that
he is an empty vessel; young, good-looking, with a celebrated pedigree
and a bright smile, but void of substance, inexperienced, and — as the
Conservative attack ad puts it — “in over his head.” Each of his public,
verbal goofs — and there have a been a string of them now — has
bolstered that narrative.
Set against that, from the start, has been the strategic savvy on
display in, among other things, his choice of issues. The trend toward
greater income inequality is real; it is in place worldwide, and Canada
is not exempt. One can argue it is unwise for any politician to promise
to “fix” such a problem, let alone while ruling out a major wealth
transfer; but not, credibly, that inequality is make-believe. More
important politically, no Canadian party leader can ever go too far
wrong in championing the middle class, because the vast majority of
voters consider themselves to be just that.
Economic policy-wise, we now know where he’s headed; it’s in keeping
with the centrist tradition established in the Chretien era, but with a
John Manley-esque, almost Red Tory tilt. The first three priorities
named in Trudeau’s presentation to the Vancouver Board of Trade last
month were education, trade and resource development, in that order, the
latter couched in language not particularly different from that used in
the past by Jim Prentice, soon to be the new Progressive Conservative
premier of Alberta. The fourth priority, innovation, is classic Manley
blue Liberalism; the fifth, infrastructure development, the only nod to
the interventionist ethos that animated the federal Liberals before they
came to power in 1993.
Here’s what that confirms: Trudeau proffers no wrenching change. Rather
he stands to inherit Harper’s neo-liberalism and make it more equitable
— just as Tony Blair once did in the United Kingdom, following the
Thatcher years, or Bill Clinton did in the United States, following the
first Bush presidency. This explains, I suspect, why his gaffes haven’t
hurt him more than they have; his program is broadly appealing both to
conservatives weary of Harper’s anti-democratic tendencies, and social
progressives leery of the New Democrats’ love of higher taxes, more
government and debt.
http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/national/Justin+Trudeau+honeymoon+over/9796337/story.html
It seemed for the longest time that nothing could touch Justin Trudeau;
that his ascendancy was inevitable. But that may be beginning to change.
In April, for the first time since he took the Liberal crown, successive
national polls showed his support slipping. Across Canada the Grits are
now in a dead heat with Stephen Harper’s Conservatives, at 33 per cent
versus 31 per cent, respectively, according to poll aggregator
threehundredeight.com.
In Quebec, meantime, the Liberals now trail Tom Mulcair’s New Democrats
by one point, at 32 per cent versus 33, according to a new CROP survey.
It’s not a collapse, to be sure; but across the board, suddenly,
Trudeau’s numbers are moving in the wrong direction, if you’re a
Liberal. And the question, of course, is why. What has changed?
For months, running into years, the knock against Trudeau has been that
he is an empty vessel; young, good-looking, with a celebrated pedigree
and a bright smile, but void of substance, inexperienced, and — as the
Conservative attack ad puts it — “in over his head.” Each of his public,
verbal goofs — and there have a been a string of them now — has
bolstered that narrative.
Set against that, from the start, has been the strategic savvy on
display in, among other things, his choice of issues. The trend toward
greater income inequality is real; it is in place worldwide, and Canada
is not exempt. One can argue it is unwise for any politician to promise
to “fix” such a problem, let alone while ruling out a major wealth
transfer; but not, credibly, that inequality is make-believe. More
important politically, no Canadian party leader can ever go too far
wrong in championing the middle class, because the vast majority of
voters consider themselves to be just that.
Economic policy-wise, we now know where he’s headed; it’s in keeping
with the centrist tradition established in the Chretien era, but with a
John Manley-esque, almost Red Tory tilt. The first three priorities
named in Trudeau’s presentation to the Vancouver Board of Trade last
month were education, trade and resource development, in that order, the
latter couched in language not particularly different from that used in
the past by Jim Prentice, soon to be the new Progressive Conservative
premier of Alberta. The fourth priority, innovation, is classic Manley
blue Liberalism; the fifth, infrastructure development, the only nod to
the interventionist ethos that animated the federal Liberals before they
came to power in 1993.
Here’s what that confirms: Trudeau proffers no wrenching change. Rather
he stands to inherit Harper’s neo-liberalism and make it more equitable
— just as Tony Blair once did in the United Kingdom, following the
Thatcher years, or Bill Clinton did in the United States, following the
first Bush presidency. This explains, I suspect, why his gaffes haven’t
hurt him more than they have; his program is broadly appealing both to
conservatives weary of Harper’s anti-democratic tendencies, and social
progressives leery of the New Democrats’ love of higher taxes, more
government and debt.
http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/national/Justin+Trudeau+honeymoon+over/9796337/story.html